Why Are Santa Clara County Home Buyers Waiting? What the Data Shows (Sept 2026)
Why Are Santa Clara County Home Buyers Waiting? What the Data Shows (Sept 2026)
· @Charm
Santa Clara County buyers are pulling back much faster than buyers nationally. Single-family sales in the county fell 13.6% from a year ago in August. Nationally, existing-home sales fell just 1.2%. The data below points to why. Every figure comes from a published source, not a forecast or opinion.
|
August 2026 |
Santa Clara County (single-family) |
United States (all existing homes) |
|---|---|---|
|
Homes sold |
624, down 13.6% from a year ago |
3.98 million annual rate, down 1.2% |
|
Change from July |
Down 12.2% |
Down 2.0% |
|
Median price |
$1,850,000, down 1.6% from a year ago |
$429,100, up 1.6% from a year ago |
|
Days on market |
25 (average) |
31 (median) |
Sources: Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS, National Association of REALTORS, HousingWire.
Reason 1: A 7% rate costs far more on a $1.85 million home
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% on September 24, 2026, per Freddie Mac. It was the first reading above 7% since January 2025. A year ago it was 6.30%. At the end of February 2026, rates were just under 6%.
On a local home, each point adds up fast. Below is the monthly principal and interest on the August county median of $1,850,000, with 20% down (a $1,480,000 loan):
|
30-year fixed rate |
Monthly principal and interest |
|---|---|
|
5.99% (just under 6%, late February 2026) |
$8,864 |
|
6.30% (September 2025) |
$9,161 |
|
7.03% (September 24, 2026) |
$9,876 |
That is about $1,000 more per month than in February. It is about $700 more than a year ago. Property taxes and insurance are not included.
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, NPR, Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS. Payments calculated with a standard 30-year amortization formula.
Reason 2: A median-priced home here needs a jumbo loan
The 2026 conforming loan limit in Santa Clara County is $1,249,125 for a single-family home. That is the federal ceiling set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Any larger loan is a jumbo loan.
A buyer putting 20% down on the $1,850,000 August median borrows $1,480,000. That is $230,875 over the limit. To stay within it, the same buyer would need about $600,875 down, or 32.5% of the price.
Freddie Mac's weekly rate covers conforming loans only. Jumbo loans are priced separately by each lender, so jumbo rates can differ from that figure.
Sources: SoFi, 2026 conforming loan limits by county (FHFA data), Freddie Mac PMMS methodology.
Reason 3: Buyers need a household income over $500,000
In the second quarter of 2026, a Santa Clara County buyer needed a minimum annual income of $510,800 to afford the median-priced home. That is per the California Association of REALTORS Housing Affordability Index. Only 22% of county households could afford it.
|
Q2 2026 |
Santa Clara County |
California |
|---|---|---|
|
Median home price |
$2,050,000 |
$916,750 |
|
Minimum qualifying income |
$510,800 |
$228,400 |
|
Households able to afford |
22% (18% a year earlier) |
19% (17% a year earlier) |
The county's estimated monthly payment was $12,770, including principal, interest, taxes and insurance.
The index assumed a 6.54% rate. The rate has since risen to 7.03%. In the first quarter, the required county income was $492,800.
Sources: C.A.R. Q2 2026 affordability report via Mountain View Voice, C.A.R. Q1 2026 report via KTVU.
Reason 4: The Fed, inflation and confidence all moved the wrong way
These are national figures. They shape the rates and mood local buyers face.
- The Fed raised rates. On September 16, 2026, it raised its benchmark rate 0.25 points to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first hike since July 2023. Sixteen of 18 officials project at least one more hike in 2026.
- Inflation is 3.4%. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% over the year ending August 2026. Gasoline accounted for over a third of August's increase.
- Confidence fell. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 48.1 in September, from 51.7 in August. The survey found home buying conditions declined. Rising interest rates passed high home prices as the top factor consumers cited.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Charles Schwab summary of Fed projections, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, University of Michigan News.
Where local buyers still compete, and where they don't
Fewer sales have not made single-family homes easy to buy. Condos tell a different story.
|
Santa Clara County segment |
Months of supply |
Data month |
|---|---|---|
|
Single-family homes |
1.6 |
June 2026 |
|
Condos and townhomes |
4.1, up 5.1% from a year ago |
July 2026 |
Months of supply measures how long current listings would last at the current sales pace. California has historically averaged about 3 months.
In the city of Santa Clara, single-family homes sold at 103% of list price in August. The median was $1,825,000, down 6.1% from a year ago. There was 1.1 months of inventory.
Sources: MLS-based July 2026 report, Mosaik Real Estate, MLSListings, Santa Clara city statistics.
Next data to watch
- October 13: NAR existing-home sales for September.
- October 14: Consumer Price Index for September.
- Mid-October: Santa Clara County Association of REALTORS September housing statistics.
- Every Thursday: Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rate.